SWS: 92% of Filipinos enter 2019 with hope!

Fourth Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey: 92% of Filipinos enter 2019 with hope

by Social Weather Stations | Dec 31, 2018 09:04:25 AM

New Year hope down especially in the Visayas
New Year hope falls in all socio-economic classes

SWS Special Report (printer-friendly version here)

Ninety-two percent of adult Filipinos are entering 2019 with hope rather than with fear, according to the Fourth Quarter 2018, Social Weather Survey conducted on December 16-19, 2018.

This is 4 points below the record-high 96% in 2017, and the same as the 92% in 2008, 2012, and 2015 [Chart 1, Table 1].

On the other hand, 8% will enter the New Year with fear. This is up by 4 points from 4% in 2017.

Hope for the New Year has always been high, starting at 87% when SWS first surveyed it in 2000. It went to 88% in 2001, and reached 95% in 2002 before easing to 90% in 2003, 81% in 2004, and 85% in 2005. It ranged from 91% to 92% from 2006 to 2008, before falling to 89% in 2009. It recovered to 93% in 2010 and has since then been at 90s levels, reaching as high as 96% in 2017.

New Year hope down especially in the Visayas

The 4-point decline in the overall New Year hope from 2017 to 2018 was due to declines in all areas, especially in the Visayas.

New Year hope fell by 16 points in the Visayas, from 95% in 2017 to a record-low 79% in 2018. This surpassed the previous record-low of 83% in 2000 and 2001 [Chart 2, Table 2].

It fell by 2 points in Metro Manila, from 96% in 2017 to 94% in 2018.

It fell by 1 point in Balance Luzon, from 97% in 2017 to 96% in 2018.

It also fell by 1 point in Mindanao, from 95% in 2017 to 94% in 2018.

New Year hope falls in all socio-economic classes

Compared to 2017, hopefulness for the New Year declined in all socio-economic classes.

It fell by 7 points in class ABC, from 97% in 2017 to 90% in 2018. This is the lowest since the 88% in 2007 [Chart 3, Table 3].

It fell by 4 points in class D or the masa, from 96% in 2017 to 92% in 2018. This is the same as the 92% in 2007, 2008, and 2015.

It fell by 3 points in class E, from a record-high 94% in 2017 to 91% in 2018.

New Year hope in Germany

In Germany, where the survey question was originally asked by the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach, 52% of Germans will enter 2019 with hope [Chart 4, Table 4].

From 1991 to 2018, German hope in the coming New Year ranged from a low 31% to a high 58%.

The 56% score in 1991, 2010 and 2014 was the third highest since the German reunification in 1990, following the record-high 58% in 1994 and 57% in 2013. It has been at 50s levels in 10 out of 28 surveys since 1991.

Survey background

The survey question on hope versus fear about the coming year was patterned after the polls conducted annually by the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach (IfDAllensbach), often referred to more simply as the “Allensbach Institute” (www.ifd-allensbach.de), one of the most well-known and respected opinion and market research institutes in Germany today. Surveys are completed in December each year in the Federal Republic of Germany, until 1989 in West Germany including West Berlin, with maximum of 2,000 respondents (16 years old and above) per survey.

The December 2018 Social Weather Survey was conducted from December 16-19, 2018 using face-to-face interviews of 1,440 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide: 360 each in Balance Luzon, Metro Manila, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±2.6% for national percentages, and ±5% each for Balance Luzon, Metro Manila, Visayas, and Mindanao).

The area estimates were weighted by Philippine Statistics Authority medium-population projections for 2018 to obtain the national estimates.

The Social Weather Survey item on New Year hope is non-commissioned. It is included on SWS’s own initiative and released as a public service.

The survey question on New Year hope was: Q174. Ang darating na taon ba ay inyong sasalubungin ng may pag-asa o may pangamba? (Sasalubungin ang darating na taon ng may pag-asa, Sasalubungin ang darating na taon ng may pangamba) [Is it with hopes or with fears that you enter the coming year? (Enter the coming year with hope, Enter the coming year with fear)].

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations. This report was prepared by Leo S. Laroza, with tabulations by Joanne Evangelista.

Chart 1